Tuesday, September 5, 2017
The Tale of the Elephant that Painted itself into a Corner.
I believe there is no singular explanation for Clinton's defeat; I think there are a dozen contributors, and if you were to flip any of them she'd have won. Many of them are clear to the naked eye. One of them, in my view, is that the GOP had been subsisting on "anything but Obama" for years, and riling up anger as a result. Rarely were concrete alternatives described; even if they were and refuted, I suspect there was always a residue of "that doesn't mean that NO non-Obama alternative could work."
So in riling up the anti-Obama sentiment, there was the movement against Obamacare. "Repeal and Replace" was short enough for a bumper sticker but little else. When it came to replace, America was confronted with the stark realities and too many in the GOP Caucus recognized their plan was unacceptable.
I will have to look for polling on it, but I suspect that the anti-immigration rescinding of DACA is going to be received similarly. Even if people accepted Trump's tirade against Mexicans when he announced his campaign, America is awake enough to recognize the difference between murdering rapists and enterprising immigrants -- even when they're older adults, to say nothing of those who are younger and brought here by parents who hated this country so much they decided to subject themselves and their kids to it.
Stuff that sounds good for the primaries... And leads to victories in swing states by rallying disaffected voters. But a way forward in governing? No. Trump may be looking for something token to hand his base, but Trump and the Republicans are going to have to think hard about their priorities for the long term, and not alienate the nation with distasteful efforts like Muslim travel bans and rescinding DACA.
Home | 8:44 PM (DISCLOSURE: I work for Abt Associates. My company does lots of stuff, including polling. My opinions should not be construed as representing those of my employer.)